The Apple/Intel rumor was easy to dismiss when first reported by CNet, but with a front page post on the WSJ and FWIW, independent confirmation by the Inquirer and Scoble, it seems like tomorrow will be a pretty huge day for Apple.

The first question that popped into my head was whether the mobile situation was really so dire. With all the PowerPC momentum (Freescale’s Dual Cores, continued POWER5 and POWER6 developments, all three next-gen consoles using PPC-based chips, cell-processing) it seemed like rather odd from a long-term perspective despite the short-term hiccups. My assumption with the switch is that there is a potential long-term strategic impasse that I just wasn’t seeing.

This kind of a platform-change would be an enormous risk though, both for developers and for consumer sales (Osborne immediately comes to mind), and especially with CNet’s reported 2006 to 2007 timeline.

I remain a bit skeptical until it’s officially announced, but this being the net of a million lies, I’ll throw my prediction in the ring for how this plays out:

• Apple announces a partnership with Intel and announces OS X on x86 in low-end tablet and HTPC form factors (new products, the latter possibly a mini-like extension) with out-of-the-box binary PowerPC compatibility via Quick Transit
• The Intel announcement is spun not as a switch, but as a platform expansion. To sell this, the Intel announcement will be cushioned by an announcement of new 970MP-based dual-core PowerMacs (additional confirmation)
• a competitive mobile platform would seem to be a major driver for the switch (especially with laptops now outselling desktops), but Yonah’s Q1 2006 release still seems far away. Whatever happened to the e600?
• It’s been noted that Apple carries a lot of PowerPC IP with them, and while I have no doubts that there will be cross-licensing involved, it seems much more likely to me that it’d be vector unit changes (permute?) or PPC-µop decoding in Intel chips rather than a wholesale jump into the PowerPC market (remember, the console margins are very low and Intel has never been in a foundry model, but hedging their bets wouldn’t hurt)
• Oh, this is totally without any basis, but Apple releases Cocoa on Windows and Linux. (all hell breaks loose)

This scenario is one that could sidestep the most severe dangers of the Osborne effect, while simultaneously solving Apple’s mobile problems and giving prime strategic positioning for the upcoming living-room battle (as well as leaving Apple in a position of strength vis-a-vis Longhorn in 2006), all while providing more leverage and reducing future risk.

Or, it could just be introducing a new XScale ARM gadget. We’ll see.

Some other points of view:

• Daring Fireball: I’ll See You Intel – Gruber’s points and predictions
• CNet: Intel/Apple coupling could woo Hollywood (see also: Cult of Mac: Apple Shifting To Intel, For Hollywood’s Sake
• eWeek: Apple-Intel Chip Deal Outcry Keeps Growing – quotes lots of forums talk (heh)
• NYTimes: Apple Plans to Switch From I.B.M. to Intel for Chips – The move is a chesslike gambit in a broader industry turf war that pits the traditional personal computer industry against an emerging world of consumer electronics focused on the digital home.