According to the EIA, America consumed 20.0MMBD last year, with 45% of it, 8.9 MMBD in gasoline alone. According to the latest EPA reports, average car and trck fuel efficiency is at 20.8mpg (check out the trends, it’s gone down since peaking in the late 80’s thanks to SUVs).
A VW Lupo gets between 78-99mpg running on diesel or bio-diesel (its Polo TDI cousin avg’s about 70mpg. (hybrid technology might add a couple more percentage points, but I’d have to do more research). Today manufacturers could easily meet increasing CAFE standards simply by doing simple things tweaking rolling resistance and aerodynamics.
Now think about it. Today, gas in Los Angeles is about $2.40/gallon. If you were driving a car today that avg’d 20mpg, and switched to one that got 60mpg, you’re effective cost/gallon would drop to $0.80/gallon – I don’t think I can even remember when gas was that cheap. Now, lets say that all the people switching to more efficient vehicles (or just driving less) had a 25% impact on gasoline consumption, or a 11.5% impact on overall oil demand. Would that lower actual prices (bringing effective prices down even more?)
(If you’re driving w/ a new direct injection diesel, prices are already a bit cheaper at the pump [albeit for crap diesel], or you can make your own bio-diesel for about $0.50/gallon. (before factoring in the cost/mi argument used above).)
Of course, if you actually run the totals through the spreadsheet, as an individual, if you’re driving 10-15K/yr, you’re only going to save a couple thousand bucks… I’ll need to do some more calculations/thinking on this later.